Wednesday, 30 November 2011

It was an incredible day as the central banks around the world issued a joint statement that basically said we will flood the world with money. Perhaps that will solve the European debt crisis is what I think they were thinking. The Dow soared 490 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive. Todays action might turn the summation index back to the upside. It's still a headline driven affair here for the stock indices but after today the trend has turned back to positive until further notice. You cannot argue with price and volume. GE rose almost a buck on good volume. We are back to the 50 day moving average line on the daily charts. The GE calls I own are now in the black. I plan on holding them until next year, so there is still along time left in this trade I believe. Gold rallied on the liquidity news as the US dollar fell. The yellow metal was up over $30 on the futures. The XAU climbed almost 13 1/2. ABX up 2 7/8, GG rose 4 and NEM gained 3 1/2. Volume picked up here as well. I again placed an overnight order in for some ABX calls but wasn't filled. I would still like to buy some gold share calls, even with todays huge upside. Resistance for ABX and GG is at $55. Once we get through that level, there is nothing to stop those issues from moving higher. Any type of pullback can be bought in my opinion. The problem being that there may not be any downside going forward. We may just rally straight up. I will be keeping an eye on these issues and will buy the calls on any weakness. We have already gapped up twice on the gold shares this week, so they are very strong. Hopefully one of those gaps will be filled. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated by not owning any gold share calls at the moment. But who was to know what would transpire today? Why would the central banks choose today as the day to announce the liquidity flush? There was a valid Gold/XAU signal Monday morning but we opened at a gap up and I don't like to chase trades. Obviously should have in this instance. But hindsight is always correct and that doesn't plan the next trade. We'll watch Europe rally overnight and see what happens tomorrow. Beginning of the month of December. Will the employment report on Friday even matter?

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

The Dow continued higher today with a gain of 32 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We were in positive territory for much of the day. Working off the oversold condition but it doesn't look like some type of sustained rally yet. End of the month tomorrow. Still a headline driven marketplace. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. My calls here are in the red. No hurry one way or the other for this trade. Gold was up $5 on the futures as the dollar lost ground again. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX up 3/8, GG rose 5/8 and NEM was flat at the close. Volume was weak. I'd still like to try the calls for the gold shares but I'm trying to be patient. Perhaps if we take another leg down here, I'll get the January calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough or well. Kind of a blah day in the markets today. Perhaps the end of the month tomorrow will liven things up. Or we could be entering a period of wait and see as we head into December. The summation index is still implying lower prices for now. That could change with another strong up day. More oversold than overbought on the short term here for the stock indices. I'll keep an eye on GE and the gold shares and take it from there.

Monday, 28 November 2011

A bounce was due and a bounce is what we got as the Dow gained 291 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. I'm not sure it is anything more than just a bounce though. The same problems in Europe remain. The next headline will be the next market mover. This is the environment that we find ourselves in. Plenty of economic data out this week, including Fridays employment report. But it seems like nobody pays attention anymore as the focus remains the European debt problem. GE was higher early and then sold all the way back. It gained an 1/8 on average volume after being up 1/2. My GE calls are in the red. I plan on holding them until next year unless the bottom falls out. If GE is a proxy for the overall market again, the stock indices will be heading lower. Not sure if that is the case this time around. Gold had a good day as the US dollar dropped. The precious metal futures gained $25 on the day. The XAU rose 5 3/4. ABX up almost 2, GG higher by 1 1/4 and NEM tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light as it has been lately. I did place an order for some ABX December calls overnight but it was not filled. I might try this trade again later in the week. The Gold/XAU ratio flashed a buy signal. If we get another one, I'll try this trade again. Mentally I'm feeling better but not 100% yet. We will have to see if the stock indices can hold up here. The summation index is still heading lower. I would like to see some type of positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator to be sure that the recent decline is over. That would be the ideal scenario. We will see if there is any follow through to todays price action tomorrow.

Friday, 25 November 2011

A holiday shortened session couldn't keep the Dow from going lower as we lost another 25 points on the day. The advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely light. We are very oversold and closed on the low of the week. Not sure how long this keeps up but a bounce is long overdue. GE was flat on the day after being higher early. Volume extremely light. Gold fell over $10 on the futures and the XAU lost 2 1/3. The US dollar had another good day. ABX fell 1/3, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost 3/8. Volume was nothing to speak of. The Gold/XAU ratio is on the cusp of a buy signal. I think that I may try the gold share calls on Monday. I will consider it over the weekend. Mentally I'm still not feeling 100%. I'm going to rest up over the weekend and go from there. I'll check the charts and decide what to do. I'm going to hold on to the GE January calls for a while. I will try and come up with a strategy for the gold share calls if that is what I decide to do. It's the middle of a long holiday weekend and time for a break.

Wednesday, 23 November 2011

Another day, another downer as the Dow fell 236 points and closed on the low for the day. The advance/declines were about 8 to 1 negative and the volume was light. No buyers in sight despite the very oversold condition. Could be dangerous. Not to mention we have a holiday tomorrow and a shortened session on Friday. I suppose we will look to the European markets for direction but they are in the same free fall as the US. Summation index gapping lower and I have no idea why the market is dropping. Not sure where we are heading from here but the stock indices must know something. GE fell 1/4 on average volume. I adjusted the open order for the January calls overnight and it wasn't filled despite the downdraft. I then went back to my original order and was filled. Plenty of time on this trade but it won't work if we continue to head in a straight line down. Not sure this is the right thing to do but it was the idea and I still think it may be valid. Time will tell. Gold fell $6 on the futures and was lower early. The US dollar had a very good day in the flight to safety for whatever reason. So gold itself held up pretty good. The XAU did not as it fell 5 1/2. ABX lost 1 1/8, GG dropped 2 1/8 and NEM down 1 1/2. Volume was light. The Gold/XAU ratio is just about at the recent buy level. I'm not sure if I should try the December of January gold share call options. The premiums are still high for January. It's something to think about this weekend because I don't think I'll be buying anything until next week. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well and I'm ill. Almost impossible for me to concentrate on what needs to be done. Thankfully it's a long weekend ahead and I should be back to normal on Monday. The stock indices are oversold both short and medium term. There will be some type of bounce soon. What happens after the bounce will determine what kind of market we're in. The markets continue to be held hostage by the European debt problems. It is still a headline trading driven affair. I think we will take our cues from what happens the rest of the week in the foreign markets. It's anybodies guess really. There is nothing wrong with waiting things out on the sidelines as well. The technicals are calling for a bounce and we haven't gotten any. Things could get interesting and not in a bullish way. We'll see.

Tuesday, 22 November 2011

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. There were rumblings from Europe about the debt problem and from the reading of the latest Fed minutes. Don't really know where we go from here. Should have had some type of bounce by now. Summation index still heading lower. I do not expect a collapse but what do I know? Not much trading left in the US this week with the Thanksgiving holiday looming. GE fell 1/4 on light volume. I still have the open order in for the January calls. Not exactly sure this is the right move the way the overall stock indices are acting but we are oversold on a daily basis. Plenty of time for this trade to work if the order does get filled but that won't matter if we just continue lower for an extended period of time. Gold bounced back over $20 on the futures. The US dollar bounced around today and ended about where it started. The XAU was up 2 7/8. ABX gained a buck, GG rose 7/8 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was light. I would still like to get the calls here on the gold shares for December or January. The ideal scenario would be for some base building in the near future. That, combined with a solid Gold/XAU ratio signal, is all we need. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Also not feeling 100%. Oversold, staying there and not a lot of volume. These aren't bullish factors. The stock indices are oversold on a daily basis though. Lots of economic data out tomorrow but the markets haven't cared much about that lately. So on we go. It's a tough trading environment but we knew that already. Perhaps the GE call trade will fill tomorrow.

Monday, 21 November 2011

We started off the shortened trading week to the downside as the Dow fell 249 points on average volume. We were down well over 300 during the session. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. I was expecting a bounce and it hasn't happened. I did not expect any huge downside and that is exactly what we got. So my idea of what is going on here at the moment is wrong. Oversold and staying there and that is never bullish. Summation index is heading lower. Something is going on but I have no idea what that is. It's happened before. Europe, the US debt problem, fears of another recession, you pick the excuse. I still expect upside medium term for the stock indices but that could be wrong as well. GE lost 3/8 on average volume. I placed an open order for the January calls. I'm leaving it in overnight. The premiums are getting down to about what I'd like to pay for this trade. Not sure it will work but I'm willing to give it a shot. Plenty of time for this trade to work if the order does get filled. Unless we are on the verge of some type of market collapse. I still don't think that is about to happen. Gold got clobbered again today, off over $40 on the futures. The US dollar was higher again today but not a lot. I'm not sure what is going on with gold at the moment either. The XAU lost 3 2/3. ABX down 3/4, GG lower by 7/8 and NEM fell 1/8. Volume was average. The gold shares all came well off of their lows. I would still like to get some January or December calls here. Perhaps today was the day. I'm trying to wait for the Gold/XAU ratio to hit the recent number for a buy signal. Did not happen today. The gold shares are still performing better than the metal itself and that is bullish for the gold shares going forward. Mentally I'm feeling tired and not all that well. It makes the decision making even more of a chore. I'd still like to let this week pass before doing anything but I did place the GE trade. Once again there is something happening in the markets and I can't put my finger on it. I expected this week to be slow due to the holiday and it has started anything but that. We'll see what happens in the overseas markets tonight and take it from there.