This Stock Blog gives insight on daily stock market trading as well as stock trading analysis. We also list stocks to buy, top stocks, stock picks, and the best stocks to invest in 2013/2014.
Friday, 4 May 2012
It was an employment downer as the Dow fell 168 points on a weaker jobs number. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The summation index is back to moving lower. Some of the daily charts on the stock indexes have potential head and shoulders tops on them. If they break the necklines, things could get ugly really fast. That has yet to happen. I thought prices would continue higher for the stock indices but whatever I've been thinking lately has been wrong. We will have to wait and see what happens on Monday. Todays developments were anything but positive. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. Still in a range and no trades for me there. Gold held up pretty well despite a rise in the US dollar. The precious metal futures gained $10. The dollar rose despite the weak jobs report as the troubles in Europe are back in the trading picture. Perhaps gold will be perceived as a safe haven again. Todays gains didn't help the gold shares as the XAU ended flat. ABX off 1/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM rose 1/2. Volume was average. I sold most of my position in the May ABX calls for a 95% loss. I held on to the later lower strike price calls. I will probably sell them next week. Just trying to cut the loss there if we see some strength in gold early next week. Gold has been moving sideways for 2 months but the gold shares have tanked within the same time period. Building a position in the May ABX calls was obviously the wrong move and lack of discipline just compounded the mistake. I'll have to put it behind me and move on. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I think it will be interesting to see how Monday turns out after todays decline in the stock market. I'm not exactly sure what is going on in Europe besides the election in France but we'll have to just wait and see. The weekly technicals for the stock indexes have rolled over. Gold has been dead money for a while. Perhaps that will change if we get a good dose of fear. It won't matter for the May calls that I had. That was one of the all time worst trades I've ever done and I will probably need some time to recover. Confidence is gone. My mental capital has dried up. But I'll still be checking the charts over the weekend and continue to do the work necessary to lead up to the next trade. Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, 3 May 2012
A bit more to the downside before tomorrows much anticipated employment report as the Dow fell 62 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still trending higher. The technicals for the stock indices are in overbought territory. Tomorrow will set the tone for the next extended move in my opinion. But that's a guess as usual. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Still stuck in the range between 19 and 20 on the daily charts. No trades here for now. Gold fell $20 on the futures and the US dollar finished the day with a slight gain. The XAU lost 5 3/4. ABX off 1 1/3, GG fell 1 3/4 and NEM lower by 1 1/2. Volume was good. The gold shares have been beaten down to a level not seen since 2010. Oversold and staying there. Gold itself has held up much better. Regardless of the employment report tomorrow, my ABX calls are dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Tomorrow should be interesting and I have no clue as to which way things will turn out. We will simply have to wait for the markets reaction to the numbers. I have no trades in mind for the May option cycle after the debacle with the ABX trade. I will have to take a step back and reassess my own trading tactics because obviously what I've been doing lately just isn't going to work. With the exception of the first trade of the year, my results have been horrible. Confidence is a key factor for success and right now it is an area that I'll need to work on. My mental state is in a down mood because I did not have the discipline to simply take the loss early. I definitely put too much emphasis and money on the ABX trade. It cost me both mentally and monetarily. I'll need to regroup. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Wednesday, 2 May 2012
The Dow opened lower and stayed in the red all day. We finished the day with a loss of only 10 points though. The advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ was higher on the day and that could bode well for the bullish cause going forward. The summation index is moving higher. The short term technicals are still overbought here though. It's a mixed bag technically. Waiting on Fridays employment report. GE was pretty much flat on the day after being lower early. No trades there for now. Gold fell on the strength of the US dollar. The dollar rose due to European worries again. The gold futures fell 8 bucks. The XAU lost 2 7/8. ABX off 1 1/8, GG dropped 1/2 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was light with the exception of ABX which was a bit above average. The ABX earnings were a bit less than expected and the stock dropped from the open. My ABX calls are losers. The lower strike price later purchase is now in the red as well. This trade will be a big loser as I built a position and was wrong. As I said yesterday, waiting for the earnings report is never a good strategy. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indexes are holding up pretty good here despite lackluster economic numbers of late. We still have to wait on Friday though. However it seems at the moment the market wants to move higher despite the numbers. As for the ABX trade, it's a loser. There was no discipline and the stop loss order was never put in. These are mistakes that should never happen. You've got to keep moving forward though. I'll simply have to regroup and move on to the next trade. Confidence will be the issue for me going forward. The technicals were oversold for ABX and the Gold/XAU ratio was in the buy zone. The trade still didn't work. I should have cut the loss early but didn't. It isn't the first time and it probably won't be the last. It will end up being close to a 100% loss. That is inexcuseable. But the markets move on. We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.
Tuesday, 1 May 2012
Weekly Warren Buffett News for May 1
The latest news about Warren Buffett, head of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B).
Buffett's cancer to be No. 1 topic at Berkshire meeting
Chance to Make Business Pitch to Buffett
The Other Buffett Rules
Buffett and Companies Give $500K to 2012 Campaigns
Brooks Sports to roll out shoes with Warren Buffett's image
Women and Warren Buffett do well in stock market
Buffett's cancer to be No. 1 topic at Berkshire meeting
Chance to Make Business Pitch to Buffett
The Other Buffett Rules
Buffett and Companies Give $500K to 2012 Campaigns
Brooks Sports to roll out shoes with Warren Buffett's image
Women and Warren Buffett do well in stock market
Five People Playing One Guitar at the Same Time
Although this video has nothing to do with investing, it was discovered by Michael Murphy at New World Investor. The Canadian indie band, Walk off the Earth, plays Somebody that I Used to Know. Five people playing one guitar.
Stocks Going Ex Dividend the Second Week of May 2012
Here is our latest update on the stock trading technique called 'Buying Dividends'. This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only in bull markets. In flat or choppy markets, you have to be extremely careful, and may need to avoid the technique during those times. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can't sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may not be paid for another few weeks. WallStreetNewsNetwork.com has compiled a downloadable and sortable list of the stocks going ex dividend during the next week or two. The list contains many dividend paying companies, all with market caps over $500 million, and yields over 2%. Here are a few examples showing the stock symbol, the market capitalization, the ex-dividend date and the yield.
| Sanofi SA (ADR) | SNY | $98.7B | 5/7/2012 | 4.7% |
| Entergy Corporation | ETR | $11.6B | 5/8/2012 | 5.1% |
| Pitney Bowes Inc. | PBI | $3.5B | 5/9/2012 | 8.7% |
| Valley National Bancorp | VLY | $2.4B | 5/9/2012 | 5.4% |
| Eli Lilly & Co. | LLY | $46.3B | 5/11/2012 | 4.9% |
| Shaw Communications Inc. | SJR | $8.4B | 5/11/2012 | 4.9% |
| Vectren Corporation | VVC | $2.4B | 5/11/2012 | 4.9% |
| Consolidated Edison, Inc. | ED | $17.2B | 5/14/2012 | 4.1% |
Dividend definitions:
Declaration date: the day that the company declares that there is going to be an upcoming dividend.
Ex-dividend date: the day on which if you buy the stock, you would not be entitled to that particular dividend; or the first day on which a shareholder can sell the shares and still be entitled to the dividend.
Record date: the day when you must be on the company's books as a shareholder to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is normally set for stocks two business days before the record date.
Payment date: the day on which the dividend payment is actually made, which can be as long at two months after the ex date.
Don't forget to reconfirm the ex-dividend date with the company before implementing this technique.
Disclosure: Author did not own any of the above at the time the article was written.
By Stockerblog.com
We finished with a gain of 65 points on the Dow but finished well off of the highs for the day. The advance/declines were almost 2 to1 positive and the volume was light. The economic data reported today was stronger than expected and that was the catalyst for todays rally. Beginning of the month money flows was also probably a contributing factor. Where we go from here is the next question which should be resolved on Friday. Probably a waiting game until then. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. It looks like we've been stuck in a range between 19 and 20 for the past 2 months on the daily chart. We will have to see which way it breaks but my guess would be to the upside. Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher today. The XAU was up 1/2. ABX was flat ahead of the earnings release, while GG and NEM rose around 1/3. Volume was light. My ABX May call trade will all depend on the earnings tomorrow. That is not really the position that I would like to be in. I'll simply hope for the best and see what happens. That is no way to trade. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. The short term technicals for the stock indices remain overbought. Todays fade away from the highs isn't exactly bullish. The coming employment report looms large so I doubt we'll see any major movement before then. I could be wrong. I'm waiting for tomorrow mornings ABX earnings announcement and I'll take it from there.
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