This Stock Blog gives insight on daily stock market trading as well as stock trading analysis. We also list stocks to buy, top stocks, stock picks, and the best stocks to invest in 2013/2014.
Thursday, 9 February 2012
Overbought, staying there and a slight gain today as the Dow gained 6 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The advancing grind continues. Day in and day out there is no concentrated selling. The trend is up and the rally continues. Summation index continues higher but we are just about as far as we can go. But who knows? GE was off 1/8 on light volume. A bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart here as well as a negative divergence on the RSI. They imply lower prices for GE in the near term. Gold was up $10 in the futures market and fell by that amount in the aftermarket. The US dollar ended flat on the day. The XAU fell 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I'm leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls but the risk is probably higher than I would normally take on. There are only 6 days left in the February option cycle. Todays action in gold itself wasn't bullish. However I've been a believer in this trade for some time now. So we'll see. I may cancel it tomorrow though. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. I have expected the market to take a rest but it hasn't happened. Perhaps we will simply continue the upwards trend into expiration. That's a guess as usual. We'll see how gold closes out the week tomorrow. There are still the ABX earnings out next week as well. So we'll get through Friday and go from there.
Wednesday, 8 February 2012
A minor attempt at a sell off this morning but the Dow came back and ended the day with a gain of 5 points. The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. No signs of a pullback although the short term technical picture is very overbought. The trend is up until further notice. GE had a fractional gain on light volume. No trades there for now. I'm still considering the March calls. Gold was down $17 on the futures but came back by $5 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was basically flat. The XAU fell 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. I'm still leaving in the open order for the February ABX calls. Running out of time here and I usually don't do well with the short term trades. We'll see if the order gets filled tomorrow and go from there. Only 7 days left in the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not a lot of data out this week and not a lot of news so far. There is really nothing new to report. The rally continues to have legs and there is nothing to stop it just yet. But we are very overbought and that condition won't last forever.
Tuesday, 7 February 2012
The upwards grind continues as the Dow gained 33 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Nothing technically has changed. We continue to be overbought and moving higher. The song remains the same. Very overbought on a daily basis. I've been expecting a pullback in the stock indices for quite some time and it really hasn't happened. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Still stuck in a trading range and awaiting the breakout one way or the other. Gold was up $23 on the futures today as the US dollar took a hit. The XAU fell a point though as it failed to follow the precious metal higher. Not exactly sure what that means going forward but it usually isn't bullish. ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM was flat. Volume was light. I am keeping the open order in for the February ABX calls. The open interest expanded a bit on the February 50 ABX calls from yesterdays volume. Todays volume on this option was huge as well. Time is running out here though but with the earnings report coming out next week, anything can happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There isn't much else to say as far as the stock market is concerned. Continuing higher along with the summation index. Gold had a nice snap back and we'll have to see if we can take out the recent highs there. If not, we may be setting up a short term top but I don't think that is the case. The recent dollar weakness is supportive to the price of gold and it looks like the dollar could fall a little further. We'll see.
Monday, 6 February 2012
We started the day off lower and tried to claw our way back as the Dow lost 17 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Conditions remain the same, overbought and staying there. The summation index continues higher. Not a lot of economic data out this week, so we could be at the mercy of the headline events. GE was flat today on light volume. Still in a trading range here as we have been from the beginning of the year. A breakout one way or the other should be coming soon. Gold lost $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher early and then fell back. It finished the day little changed. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional changes one way or the other on very light volume. I placed another open order for some February ABX calls. However time is running out on these options and the trade has more risk than I would usually take. That said, I would still like to give it a shot. The open interest did not expand with the volume Friday for the ABX February 50 calls. That isn't exactly bullish. I will have to ponder this trade tonight and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'm not exactly sure what to expect from the stock indices this week. We've been overbought for so long that the technicals are out of whack. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Friday, 3 February 2012
It was up, up and away from the start as the Dow gained 156 points on the heels of a positive employment report. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive and the volume was good. We simply continue higher regardless of being overbought. That is how it works in bull markets. The summation index continues higher but we are getting pretty high here. There's some room left but I would expect a turn in this indicator at some point in February. It doesn't mean we have to see a big decline in the indices, sideways would also be an option. GE rose 1/4 on average volume. We're still in a sideways channel here but if the overall market is any indication of things to come, GE will break out to the upside. Hasn't happened yet. I'm still interested in the March calls. Gold finally started to pull back as it lost $20 in the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The US dollar finished the day relatively flat despite the better jobs numbers. The XAU fell about 2 1/2. ABX lost 3/4, GG dropped 1 1/8 and NEM shed 1 1/4. Volume was good here and that's a concern for the bullish case going forward. I again placed an order for some ABX February calls but canceled it near the end of the trading session. With only 2 weeks to go in the February option cycle, any option trade here will take on even more risk. The earnings report for ABX comes out the Thursday before expiration this month, adding to the risk as well. Once again there was very heavy volume in the February ABX 50 calls. We will have to see if it expanded the open interest there on Monday as was previously the case. I'm still considering the calls here. Mentally I'm feeling very tired, did not sleep well. The stock indexes continue higher and there is no end in sight. Of course when you start to make statements like that, the end is usually near. Very overbought on the technicals in the stock market. I think that something to the downside will happen this month or at the very least a sideways pause. The timing of such an event, if it occurs, is the question. I have no answers. Gold started to correct today and I'll be checking the charts to see if the February gold share calls are still the proper trade. I think they are. But we all know there are no guarantees in this game. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, 2 February 2012
The expected holding pattern before the employment report occurred today as the Dow fell 11 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Still overbought on the stock indices. So we'll get tomorrows number and take it from there. GE was flat today on light volume. The Bollinger bands continue to tighten here, so expect a big move one way or the other in GE soon. I'm still interested in the March calls here but in no hurry. Gold continues to move higher, up about $10 on the futures and a touch more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was a bit higher today but really was in a holding pattern waiting for tomorrows employment report. The XAU was up 2 points. ABX gained 1/2, while GG and NEM each rose over a buck. Volume was light. I placed an order in for the ABX February calls again. Once again the volume on the February ABX 50 calls was heavy. The open interest there expanded again yesterday. I'd like to own some of these if the price is right because there is obviously something going on here. What? I don't know. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we'll see what the employment report brings and the markets reaction to it. We've been overbought for so long on the stock indices that you'd just expect the markets to continue to churn higher regardless of what the employment report is. Gold is a mirror of the stock indexes overbought and staying there condition. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Wednesday, 1 February 2012
February trading began to the upside as the Dow gained 83 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The rally from the October lows continues. The over the counter stocks continue to lead the way and that is bullish going forward. Summation index continues higher. We worked off some of the overbought conditions in the past week or so and now we are moving higher. Nothing seems to be in the way of higher prices. GE had a fractional gain after being higher earlier. Volume was average. I'm still looking for a decent move one way or the other in the near future. My thinking here is still for the GE March calls. Gold was up around $9 on the futures today. The US dollar took another drop today but the move in gold itself was muted. The XAU was off 1/4. ABX was flat, GG fell 3/4 and NEM dropped 1/3. Volume was light. Overbought on the gold shares and I canceled the open order for the ABX February calls. I once again noticed some extreme volume in the ABX February 50 calls. The last time that happened about a week ago the open interest expanded as well. We'll see tomorrow if that is again the case. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indexes remain overbought and rallying. That has been and still is the case. You cannot fight that. I'm not sure what my next trade will be. I was leaning towards the gold share calls but we have yet to see a pullback in gold itself. I will have to consider exactly what to do later tonight. Perhaps I'll wait for the markets reaction to the employment report and go from there. A little more than 2 weeks left for the February option cycle. Tomorrow should be a holding pattern awaiting Friday.
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