More downside today as we ended near the lows for the week. The Dow lost 240 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. I really feel as though we at at the edge of a cliff. We're at the bottom of the trading range and I think we will break it to the downside. Unfortunately I don't own any OEX puts yet as the premiums are very expensive with the recent volatility and 3 weeks left in the October cycle. I'll still try and get some before the employment report next Friday if we get some upside next week. But that may not happen. We're oversold here but that doesn't matter if we see a collapse. There aren't any reasons to buy stock here just yet. GE lost 2/3 on better volume. Probably getting ready to break down here as well. I'm going to get some January calls here next month. That has been the idea and I'm sticking with it. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The XAU was higher during the day but ended up only 1/2. ABX rose 3/8, GG gained a buck and NEM higher by 3/8. Volume was a little better today. The US dollar had a good day as money sought safety. However the flight to gold for safety is not happening at the moment. I am still going to get some gold share calls next month for the November cycle. We're oversold on the gold shares. However if we get the market collapse that I fear here, the gold shares will follow. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indices cannot gain any traction to the upside. When we started the week with about a 600 point gain on Monday and Tuesday but couldn't hold it, that was telling. It isn't a good sign. Perhaps we can get one more short covering rally in the beginning of next week to buy some OEX puts. If not, I'll have to look at the other longer term call trades in GE and the gold shares. There is still plenty of time in the October option cycle. The VIX is pretty high here and if it continues upwards, look out. The market will go where it wants. I think next week could be very interesting. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

An up and down day as we opened higher, went lower and then closed higher by 143 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Not quite sure of what to make of todays session. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. I'd still like to own some OEX puts before the employment report in a week. The summation index is moving back and forth with no real trend at the moment. I still have the open order in for the OEX puts but I'll probably cancel it over the weekend unless it gets filled tomorrow. GE was up 3/8 on light volume. GE was a proxy again today as it never went negative even with the market selling off. GE is once again getting close to its 50 day moving average on the daily charts. It is something to keep an eye on. Gold was little changed on the futures today but did sell off last night before coming back. The XAU was up 1/3. ABX and GG gained 1/3, while NEM was up a buck. Volume was light. The US dollar didn't do much today. Perhaps the gold shares are trying to put in a bottom here. However if my market prognosis is correct, we will see lower prices in the coming weeks. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We had every reason to sell off today but somehow made a comeback. This portends near term strength. The ideal scenario for me would be to purchase the OEX puts next Tuesday or Wednesday on market strength. That is probably wishful thinking. We have been going sideways for about 2 months in the stock indices. The breakout, when it happens, is something to be a part of. I still think it will be to the downside but the longer we wander around here increases my doubts of that. I still want some November gold share calls as well. Tomorrow ends the week, the month and the quarter.

Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 180 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. My guess is that the chance to purchase the OEX puts at a reasonable price has passed and we will be heading down from here. Monday and Tuesday were nothing more than a short covering snap back rally in retrospect. I think that we will be taking out the lows of support shortly. I could be wrong. I'd still like to be short ahead of the employment report next Friday. I'm leaving in my open order for the OEX October puts but it probably won't be filled. Perhaps I'll adjust the price. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. I'm expecting the recent lows to be taken out here as well. The game plan is to still get some January calls within the next month or so. Gold fell back $35 today and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 8 7/8. ABX off 1 3/4, GG down 1 3/4 and NEM fell 1 7/8. Getting pretty oversold on the gold shares but the timing here will be the key. I'd still like the November calls at some point. Trying the October cycle here would entail more risk if we get the market selling off more as I expect. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated. That is to be expected when what I was looking for shows up and I don't take advantage of it. I'll just have to take it from here. No hurry to get long at this point, however the gold shares are getting blown out to the downside. I really think we are about to have a precipitous fall in the stock indices. Stay tuned.

The Dow took off to the upside today but pared its gains in the final hour. We closed the day higher by 146 points but we were up over 300. The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive and volume was average. This should turn the summation index back to the upside. I placed an order for some OEX puts but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it in overnight but I may be too late again already. No real news for the rally in the stock indices, just the hope that Europe ends up OK. Not overbought or oversold here on a short term basis. I'm a believer that puts should be owned at some point before the employment report next week. I could be wrong. GE was up about 1/4 on light volume. It too was higher earlier in the day. I'll keep an eye on GE as a proxy for the overall market. It has been a precursor of sorts lately. Gold bounced back today, the futures gained over $50. The US dollar had a weak day. The XAU was only up 1/4 after being much higher early in the day. ABX was up 1/4, GG was flat and NEM lost 7/8. Volume was light here. I think it is too early for a sustained up move in the gold shares here. That said, I would still like to own some November calls eventually. If the overall market falls as I expect, the gold shares should drop and that would be an entry point for the calls. Wishful thinking perhaps. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. So we had a huge move to the upside in the stock indices and couldn't hold on. My order is in for some OEX puts but it may not get filled. The daily candlestick charts don't look positive for the stock indices with todays move. But that could all change tomorrow. End of the month on Friday. We'll see what happens overnight in Europe and go from there.

A huge rally to start the week as the Dow gained 272 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. I'm inclined to believe that this is simply an oversold bounce but you never know. No concrete news to rally on today yet up we went. I'm not going to try and figure it out. The market speaks and we should listen. I still want to own some OEX puts before the employment report at the end of next week. Hard to be patient here but that is what's required. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. The January calls are still what I have in mind here. No hurry to purchase them as I will probably wait until next month. Gold was very volatile today as the futures lost $45 but made a comeback in the aftermarket. Overnight the futures were down twice that much. The dollar was off a bit today. The XAU gained 3 3/4 after being lower early on. ABX up a buck, GG rose 1/2 and NEM led the way higher by 1 1/2. Volume was average. I did place an order for some ABX calls but was not filled. I'm leaving the order in overnight. I'm pretty sure this is where to make the purchase. I would expect things to be choppy for a couple of weeks but I could be wrong. I'm trying the October cycle but may go out to November as time goes on. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. A nice rally out of nowhere today and we should see some follow through in the overseas markets. I'm still a believer in the OEX puts for the October option cycle. My feeling is that gold will hold up here around the $1600 level but I could be wrong. The technicals for the gold shares are oversold here. The ideal situation would be for some base building before we move higher. We'll see.